How we score every lead
Every Roof-Scout.Com lead is scored 0–100 using six independent signals pulled from radar archives, county records, and property data. Here's exactly how the model works — no black box.
Example scores — illustrative only
Six signals. One score.
Each signal contributes a weighted sub-score. GPT-4o synthesizes them into a final 0–100 rating and a plain-English lead summary.
Weights are calibrated per region. Florida leads weight storm exposure and insurance signals more heavily; Midwest leads weight hail diameter and roof age. The 0–100 scale is comparable across all markets.
What goes into each signal
Storm exposure history
30% weightWe cross-reference 5 years of NEXRAD dual-polarization radar data against each parcel's GPS coordinates. Properties that have experienced hail cores (≥0.75 in diameter), straight-line wind events (≥58 mph), or tornado-adjacent tracks score highest. Recency matters -- a storm 6 months ago outweighs one from 4 years ago.
Contributing factors
- Hail core diameter and density at parcel centroid
- Wind speed and direction from NWS storm reports
- Number of qualifying events in the last 60 months
- Recency decay — recent events weighted 3× more than older ones
Roof age estimate
25% weightRoof age is derived from county permit records, assessor data, and year-built fields. A roof installed in 2010 on a property that experienced a 2023 hail event is a high-probability replacement candidate. We apply actuarial replacement curves — asphalt shingles typically need replacement at 20–25 years, metal at 40–70 years.
Contributing factors
- Last permitted roofing work from county records
- Year-built as a proxy when no permit history exists
- Material type (asphalt vs. metal vs. tile) affects decay curve
- Age × storm exposure compound score multiplier
Permit history
15% weightActive or recently closed roofing permits are a strong negative signal — the work is already done. Conversely, a property with no roofing permit in 20+ years and significant storm exposure is a strong positive signal. We also flag properties with open code violations related to roofing or structural integrity.
Contributing factors
- Open roofing permits (negative — work in progress)
- Permit gap — years since last roofing permit
- Code violations related to roofing or structural issues
- Permit frequency as a proxy for proactive maintenance
Ownership changes
10% weightRecent ownership changes (within 24 months) correlate with higher roofing project likelihood — new owners often commission inspections and repairs. Long-term owners who have never pulled a roofing permit on an aging property are also high-value targets. We weight both patterns.
Contributing factors
- Deed transfer date from county assessor records
- Owner-occupied vs. investor-owned classification
- Absentee owner flag (higher urgency for storm damage)
- Multi-property owner flag (commercial opportunity signal)
Property value
10% weightHigher-value properties correlate with higher project budgets and lower price sensitivity. We use assessed value and estimated market value to segment leads. A $600k home with a 20-year-old roof and recent hail exposure is a materially different opportunity than a $120k home with the same profile.
Contributing factors
- County assessed value and estimated market value
- Value tier segmentation (entry / mid / premium)
- Value-to-age ratio as a replacement urgency proxy
- Neighborhood median value for relative scoring
Insurance claim likelihood
10% weightWe model insurance claim likelihood using storm severity, roof age, and property value. Properties in high-claim zip codes following a major weather event score higher. This signal helps contractors prioritize leads where an insurance-funded replacement is the most likely outcome — the highest-value job type.
Contributing factors
- Zip-code-level historical claim density from NWS event data
- Storm severity classification (SPC reports)
- Roof age × storm severity compound likelihood score
- Post-event claim window (0–90 days is peak filing period)
What each score range means
Use score bands to prioritize your outreach. Higher scores mean more compounding signals — not just one strong indicator.
Multiple compounding signals — recent storm exposure, aging roof, no recent permits. These leads warrant same-week outreach.
At least two strong signals present. Good candidates for a first call within 2 weeks.
One strong signal or several weaker ones. Worth including in a broader outreach campaign.
Minimal storm exposure or recent permit activity. Best used for market coverage, not priority outreach.
New roof, no storm exposure, or active permit. These properties are filtered out of the lead marketplace.
Six authoritative data sources
No scraped directories. No purchased lists. Every signal comes from a primary government or scientific data source.
Dual-polarization radar network — 160+ stations across the US. 5-year event history per parcel.
National Weather Service local storm reports — hail size, wind speed, tornado tracks.
Roofing and structural permits from county assessor and building department databases.
Year built, owner name, assessed value, deed transfer history, and property classification.
NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather event archive — hail, wind, and tornado events.
Synthesizes all signals into a natural-language lead summary and final 0–100 score.
From raw data to ranked lead
Storm event detected
NEXRAD radar ingested every 5 minutes. Hail cores and wind events flagged against parcel grid.
Property data pulled
County assessor records fetched — year built, owner, assessed value, permit history.
Six signals computed
Each signal scored independently. Weights applied per region. Sub-scores normalized to 0–100.
AI synthesis
GPT-4o reads all sub-scores and generates a final score, reason codes, and a plain-English lead summary.
Lead published to marketplace
Scored lead appears in the contractor portal. Contact details redacted until a credit is spent.
Score refreshed on new data
If a new storm event or permit update arrives, the lead score is recalculated automatically.
Scoring FAQ
Can I see the score breakdown before I claim a lead?
Yes. Every lead in the marketplace shows the overall score and the top contributing signals before you spend a credit. You only pay to unlock the full contact details and property brief.
How often are scores updated?
Scores are refreshed when new NEXRAD data is ingested (every 5 minutes during active weather) and when county permit records are updated (typically weekly). A lead's score can increase after a major storm event.
What score should I target?
Most contractors focus on leads scoring 60 and above for active outreach. Leads scoring 80+ represent the highest-urgency opportunities and typically have the shortest window before a competitor makes contact.
Are scores the same across all states?
The scoring model is consistent, but signal weights are calibrated per region. Florida leads weight hurricane and wind exposure more heavily; Texas leads weight hail and tornado proximity. The 0–100 scale is comparable across markets.
What if I disagree with a score?
Scores are model-generated and not a guarantee of project likelihood. If you claim a lead and find the property data is materially incorrect (wrong address, recently replaced roof not reflected), contact us at [email protected] and we'll review it.
Now you know how the score works. Put it to use.
Browse radar-scored leads in your market. Filter by score, state, and project type. Claim the ones that match your business.